Base Rates The next mental model on my list is base rates. Simply put, when trying to determine the probability of an event happening, you should start at a level where you pretend no other information is available. Further, even if more information is available, you’re still best off to establish the base rate first, and then factor in the other pieces.
Base Rates
Base Rates
Base Rates
Base Rates The next mental model on my list is base rates. Simply put, when trying to determine the probability of an event happening, you should start at a level where you pretend no other information is available. Further, even if more information is available, you’re still best off to establish the base rate first, and then factor in the other pieces.